Game Day Preview: Battle of Capitals

After a couple exciting days in Sens Land, the boys are back to playing that "hockey" thing. The opponent; a bunch of noname losers.

Or was that Saturday?

All jokes aside, we have ourselves a big one tonight! Sens play in Washington in a battle of the Capitals, and face one of the more terrifying teams in the league in Ovie and his band of Merry Men (who themselves are pretty scary).

The Sens come into this one feeling groovy; 4-0-0 in their last 4 (let's not mention before that), goalie being named first star of the week, young blood being infused into the system and a playoff spot all but locked up.

The Caps come into this one snarly. They got boo'd the other night in their own building losing to the struggling Flames, and lost the game before that in Carolina. Expect their best tonight.

I would break it down the way we usually do, but the Caps, being the top team in the NHL, top the Sens in all categories. That is, except for Ottawa's outstanding penalty kill which dominates the Caps powerplay this year (Caps are 0-8 this year against the Sens). This will take a toll without Volchy, but let's cling to something right?

Players to Watch:

Ottawa: The Kids are alright! This gives me hope for the new kids from this week. Regin and Karlsson are my players to watch tonight. With Volchy out, expect Sutton to get BIG minutes. If thats the case, King K will also end up with a lot of icetime against the leagues best offensive team. Look for him to see if he can keep up his excellent play of late. Regin seems to be getting more and more comfortable in 9MM's spot and should be a threat again tonight.

Washington: Is this even a question? Alex Ovechkin, in my opinion, if the best player in the game today. Watch him, please. Nick Backstrom is having an incredible season as well. As always, watch Mike Green and let's hope the Corvo-Curse is over now that he has been traded out of Carolina.

CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS

Young: On paper, this should be a win for Washington. But with the Sens good play of late, Washington's "struggles" and the fact that I'm not sold on the goaltending for the Caps, I think the Sens can win this. Finally, add that I'm a homer and that the Sens are currently leading the season series (and might be sweeping it if not for some tough goals...looking at you Pazzy....). Mix all these ingredients you get:

3-2 Sens

Oakes: I don't want to pick against the Sens. So I won't.

5-4 Sens

SO CLEARLY WE ARE HOMERS, WHAT ARE YOUR PREDICTIONS?

Other Players Bryan Murray has Signed out of College

As all of you probably already know Bryan Murray has signed highly touted NCAA prospect, Bobby Butler, to a two year contract. Butler led the NCAA with 29 goals this season while adding 24 assists. Despite his stats, there is no sure way to know if he will turn out.

We can however look at the stats of other free agents Murray has signed out of college.

Chris Kunitz

• 30 years old, left wing, 6ft, 198 lbs
• Attended Ferris University
• Senior year - scored 35g and 44a
• Signed with the ducks in 2003
• Had the best year of his career with the Ducks in 2006-07 tallying 60pts in 81gp
• Has won TWO cups.

Dustin Penner

• 27 years old, left wing, 6ft 4in, 245 lbs
• Attended the University of Maine
• Only played one year in college tallying 11 g and 12 apples
• Signed with the Ducks in 2004
• After stints in the AHL, his first year with the big club in 2006-07 he recorded - 29g and 16a and won a Stanley cup

Jesse Winchester

• 26 years old, Centre, 6ft 1in, 215lbs
• Colgate University
• Jesse scored 37 points in each of his last two years of college
• Signed with the Senators in 2008
• In his rookie campaign he scored 3 goals and 15 assists

I am too young to remember any players Murray signed when GM of Detroit and Florida, so please let me know if I am missing anyone. All players mentioned above have been very successful in their own way. Penner, massive power forward with great hands, Kunitz, 32 points in 48 games this season and Winchester, a fourth line grinder that adds depth during playoff time.

I do not want to get too excited about Butler as I have not yet seen him play. One can only hope that Butler turns into a player similar to Chris Kunitz, their size and point production at the college level are very similar.

What are your predictions for the Ottawa Senators newest prospect Bobby Butler?

Career AHLer, 4th liner, 3rd liner etc..?

Where in the World Is Carmen San Diego? (AKA The Story of L'Enigma) UPDATED

****UPDATE: SENS SIGN RW BOBBY BUTLER (read about him here) WOULDN'T IT BE NICE TO SEE HIM TAKE KOVY'S PLACE ON THE RIGHT SIDE SO KOVY CAN REST FOR THE PLAYOFFS?****

That is the big question in Ottawa right now. And since you provided such excellent feedback the last time we created a debate, I thought we'd try and bring you all out of hiding again.

Alex Kovalev; 6'1 215lbs and 37 years old from Togliatti Russia. He signed a 2 year 10 million dollar contract on July 6th 2009.

And to be honest, we knew what we were getting. While the Montreal fans called him L'Artiste for having some of the most spectacular hands in the game, the buzz word that came with the Kovy signing wasn't "skill" or "dangles".

It was "enigma"

For those of you not familiar with the word it means "to describe something or someone as an enigma, you mean they are mysterious or difficult to understand". The reason this was used by analysts, columnists and bloggers alike was because some nights Kovy can be the best player on the ice, and some nights he can be invisible. There is no rhyme or reason for it.

Or is there? Let's have a closer look at the first season of AK27 in a Sens uniform.

In 72 games this year Alex has 47 points (17 goals, 30 assists), good for third on the team. However lets look at how these stats break down.

October		12	4	1	5	-5	10	0	1	0	0	0	17	.235
November		9	0	6	6	3	2	0	2	0	0	0	14	.000
December		17	3	8	11	6	12	1	1	0	0	1	38	.079
January		15	7	10	17	2	18	0	4	0	0	2	47	.149
February		7	3	5	8	1	4	2	2	0	0	1	18	.167
March		12	0	0	0	-10	8	0	0	0	0	0	21	.000

Courtesy of Yahoo Sports

Now, looking at these stats, let us look at it in portions. The first twelve games of the season, the Sens went 6-3-3 (fancy way of saying 6-6), and they amassed 37 goals, about 3 per game. Of these, stats-wise Kovy contributed to 14%. This can maybe be written off perhaps as a new player learning a new system.

After putting up semi-respectable numbers in November and December, on the 3rd of January, in a wild 7-4 win against the Flyers in which he scored 4 goals and 1 assist", Kovy dropped this line on the fans

"I had an injury. I couldn't even shoot right. I tried to pass, in general. But lately I have started feeling more or less better." Puck Daddy

That was the beginning of January. From that point to the end of the Olympic break, Alex put up 25 points in 22 games. Better than a point a game over the same stretch that his linemate Mike Fisher put up only 5 goals! Keep in mind most of this is done on the second line! Not bad for a 37 year old.

Add this in to the fact that Kovalev sat out the game on Friday in Buffalo, and a strong case begins to be made that Alex Kovalev is hurt, and has been playing hurt for most of the post-olympic break.

He is not a young man anymore. An injury at his age would make (and evidently in the early part of the year DID make) a huge difference. This doesn't mean he is without fault. He should be sitting out and resting for the playoffs if he is hurt.

One thing that Sens fans, especially those calling for him to be sent to the minors (seriously?), don't seem to realize is this last bit of information:

In wins		38	16	21	37	25	22	3	8	0	0	4	93	.172
In losses		34	1	9	10	-28	32	0	2	0	0	0	62	.016

Winning		N/A	5	4	9	N/A	16	1	2	0	0	1	N/A	N/A
Losing		N/A	4	12	16	N/A	24	1	3	0	0	0	N/A	N/A
Tied		N/A	8	14	22	N/A	14	1	5	0	0	3	N/A	N/A
Clutch		N/A	3	2	5	N/A	4	1	0	0	0	1	N/A	N/A
Blowouts		N/A	1	1	2	N/A	0	0	1	0	0	0	N/A	N/A
Last 5 Min		N/A	4	7	11	N/A	18	2	2	0	0	1	N/A	N/A

What this says to me is that we NEED Kovalev. When he is on (37 points) we win. When he isn't (10 points) we lose. And when those games in the postseason are tight, 81% of his points have come when we are losing or tied.

I'm not trying to make an excuses for Alex

I'm just trying to explain The Enigma.

What do you guys think?

Roll Call - Sens vs. Panthers

Great game for the boys as they win their fourth straight. No points were gained on the division leading Buffalo Sabres as they slaughtered the Tampa Bay Lightening this evening.

King K - Looked really strong all game. Unreal pass to Spezza for Regin's goal. Three assists... not bad you?

Chris Phillips - A couple of outstanding breakout passes and a diving play to prevent a breakaway all in a days work.

Campoli - Solid game! Making a strong case to stay in the line up when Kuba comes back.

Alfredsson - Destroyed that puck from the point.

Sutts - Absolutely railroaded Volchy.

Volchy - I really hope he is not too badly hurt as he is crucial for playoffs. If a player like that goes to the hospital you know something is wrong.

Ells - Steady game. Made the saves he should make and didn't let in the weak one.

Stop by tomorrow as we will have a look into a couple of theories of what is wrong with Alex Kovalev.

Game Day Preview: Ottawa at TGI Friday's

Man, that Emery quote was awesome.

It's time folks, time for some good old division rivalry. I won't lie, with the decline of Toronto and the fact that Montreal is a bunch of midgets, I am starting to look forward to these Ottawa-Buffalo games more than any others.

Or maybe that's just because we routinely kick their asses?

OFFENSE: The Sabres are technically 11th in the league with 2.76 goals per game while the Sens are 19th with 2.62. Thomas Vanek leads the team with 23 goals, and Tim Connolly leads their team with 65 points. Neither however strike fear in me. In 33 games against Ottawa lifetime, Vanek has 24 points, this year 2 goals in 4 games, no assists. The Sens are missing top left wingers Milan Michalek (22 goals) and Alex Kovalev (47 points). Never thought I'd say it, but slight edge SABRES.

DEFENCE: The Sabres have given up less goals this year than Ottawa, but that is more a result of Ryan Miller than fantastic Sabre defence. The way the Sens D are playing (especially Sutton, Phillips and Volchy) and the fact that outside of Tyler Myers they really have no one, this is a win for the SENS.

GOALTENDING: Ya, ok. I don't care that B-Ells has been good the last two games or that against the Sens Ryan Miller's GAA is 0.10 higher than it is against the rest of the league. He's the best goalie in the world. EDGE: SABRES

SPECIAL TEAMS: Both teams struggle on the power play, being in the bottom third of the league in the category, and with 7 minutes the other night the Sens mustered 2 posts and no goals. Buffalo's penalty kill is actually better than the Senators, 2nd in the league! Again, your goalie has to be your best Penalty killer and well.. he is the best goalie. EDGE: SABRES

Players to watch:

Ottawa: With Kovalev now joining Michalek on the sidelines, look for big games from Matt Cullen and Peter Regin, both who have been given chances to play up on the top two lines recently. However, the Captain has 76 points in 74 career games against Buffalo. Simply put; they are his bitch. As always watch how angry Buffalo gets at Ruutu and Neil.

Buffaslugs: I'm not sure there is a player in the league that hates Ottawa more than Adam Mair, as evidenced by his 133 career penalty minutes against Ottawa (4.03 per game!). Jason Pomminville constantly puts up points in Buffalo and his 20 in 30 games against the Sens is reason enough to watch him. Tyler Myers and Ryan Miller are really the only two players to watch however.

CONSENSUS PREDICTIONS:

Young: I know I wrote edge to Sabres more than edge to Senators, and the numbers will have you believe that. However, the intangibles are that the Sens have owned the Sabres winning 8 in a row and I hope to see that continue. In the immortal words of Mark Christopher F Buffalo.

3-1 Ottawa

Oakes: When your most offensive players have a) gotten their face broken by an anton Volchenkov shot b) been concussed by Peter Schaefer.. we at Ottawa's Consensus consider you a walk in the park... but who walks in the park in buffalo.. it is a shit hole. So Ottawa will keep this close.

3-2 Ottawa

How about a healthy debate?

Really intense game Tuesday night, a real playoff set-up. I thought the team played well, and played extremely hard (except one person...I'm looking at you big 27). I thought the defence won us the game and that instead of doing a normal recap, I would put up a debate containing in my mind, two of the three best Sens in Tuesday's win (the other was Phillips), to inspire some thought and (hopefully) some responses.

For the few of you that read this (thank you housemates!!), you may not believe me when I say that, sitting in class today, I came up with a sweet idea for a blog. Why not compare the pros and cons to keeping Anton Volchenkov over Andy Sutton. Why might you not believe this? Because when I came home, I found that at 11:43, Senschirp put up a blog about the very same idea. You can believe me or not, but fact is, while chirp posted the question, I planned to look into it deeper. And, because I don't want to do homework, that's exactly what I'm still going to do! So let's break it down shall we?

PHYSICAL

Sutton: 6'6, 245lbs and 35 years of age. 175 hits this year, which translates into 2.8 hits per game.

Volchy: 6'1, 226lbs and 28 years of age. 140 hits this year, which translates into 2.4 hits per game.

Thoughts: This is basically a DRAW. Sutton hits more, and his huge frame is quite an attractive asset because you cannot teach size. In addition, Sutton will occasionally drop the gloves, which takes some of the pressure off Carks and Neil. Now Volchy on the other hand has never had a problem with his size, and he is 7 years younger, which cannot be underestimated. Guys tend to lose a step in their late 30's.

DEFENCE

Sutton: Rated #1 Defensive defenseman in the league by CBS sports. This is because of his aforementioned 175 hits combined with his 172 blocked shots (2.77 per game) and only -8 rating despite playing on the Islanders for most of the year.

Volchy: Rated #3 on the same rating scale, he has blocked 157 shots (2.75 per game) this season while having a +3 on the season.

Thoughts: as far as defensive d-men go, these are two of the leagues best. Cannot really find much difference except in the plus-minus but that can be explained by a poor Islander season and possibly because Volchenkov has a very reliable defensive partner. DRAW.

OFFENSE

Sutton: Sutton has shown he like to jump up in the rush, and his hands aren't too bad. He handles the puck well for a man his size. 5 goals and 13 points this year puts him at 0.21 ppg for the year and 0.24 ppg for his career. He doesn't see regular powerplay time but does have a cannon for a shot.

Volchy: Handles the puck like a hand grenade. Sometimes forgets he is Russian. Needs to watch Kovy's puck handling DVD. 3 goals (almost a career high) and 13 points gives him 0.22 ppg this year and has 0.22 ppg for his career.

Thoughts: The numbers surprise me, but remember, Sutton has only ever played on one playoff bound team and Anton played on some very high scoring Ottawa clubs. Looking outside the numbers, just the way they handle the puck, I give this to SUTTON.

INTANGIBLES

Sutton: Well, he is the new guy, so you would think Anton should clean up here. However, he has played very well and shown some good chemistry with Erik Karlsson. This is no small thing. Going forward, King K will likely be our top d-man. In addition, Karlsson's biggest detractor is his size, and Sutton more than makes up for that, and can stand up for the kid (as shown on Tuesday) once the league realizes they have to run him to shut him down.

Volchy: It is hard to look past Volchy's 7 years of nearly sterling service and 4-5 years of Philchenkov chemistry that will be disrupted if/when he leaves. Trouble is, with the style he plays, how much longer can he keep it up. In addition, will Philchenkov (our top d-pair for years) be our top d-pair going forward? With the emergence of young guys in the pipeline, will it make sense to pay Volchy top dollar to play second fiddle to King K and the other new kids?In addition, Phillips has shown he can play with young guys and make them look good when Volchy is hurt (See: Brian Lee, Karlsson) and maybe he helps Cowen into the league over the next few years.

CONTRACT

Sutton: He is making 3.0 million this year, it the last year of a 3 year deal that I believe payed him an average of 3.5 million per. He has had a very good season, but I cannot see him getting more than 3.5 on the open market, and at his age, probably not more than another 3 years. This is just my opinion of course.

Volchy: This is a lose for Volchy (in this debate. A win for his bank account). Career year, in the media a ton, value is extremely high and is coming off a contract where he took a discount. Look for him to pick up (on the open market) as high as 4.5 million over 4-5 years. That is high and long term based on how we've broken this down.

YOUNG"S FINAL THOUGHTS

If I'm Brian Murray (which I'm not) and these guesses at numbers are correct. I re-sign Sutton to 3.5 (maybe a little less) for 3 years, pat Anton on the back, thank him for his services and wish him luck. Pair King K and Sutton next year, Pair Phillips with either Kuba or Cowen, and have Carkner, Campoli (resigned at minimum raise for RFA) and Lee fight it out for the remaining spots.

IF YOU WERE BRYAN MURRAY, WHAT WOULD YOU DO?