Game One Tonight...Keys to the Upset

You have no doubt read amazingly in-depth series previews all over the place. I would recommend a personal favourite of mine, Nichols, who gives you everything from Forwards to Jerseys to media. Its a fun read, if not a short one.

SO rather than do my customary thing and do a crazy breakdown of everything, I will do something I'm not sure I'm capable of. Short and Sweet.

I can identify THREE KEYS to upsetting the defending champs. They look like this:

1) Brian Elliott Cannot Play Like a 9th Round Draft Selection Who Has Never Played in the Playoffs: This one is simple, you live or die by your playoff goaltending. Let's hope he's a little more Cam Ward and a little less Roman Chechmanek.

2) Set the Tone Early: Let's Kick the Crap Out of Them: Physical play is one of the only advantages we decidedly have over them. Neiler, Fish, Smitty, Winny, Volchy and of course Sutts, I'm looking at you.

3) Second Line Scoring In the Absence of L'Enigma; Fast Chemistry Between 9MM & the Fish: No doubt this is crucial. Clouston has decided loading up a second line with Cullen Fish AND Michalek is the way to go. We'll see. Either way this line needs to be effective or this is going to be a reeeeeal short trip.

So, what do you think, anything to add to my list? Which of these three is most important? And Lastly, do you think the Sens stand a chance, even with these?

Gametime bitches, let's get to it.

Where in the World Is Carmen San Diego? (AKA The Story of L'Enigma) UPDATED

****UPDATE: SENS SIGN RW BOBBY BUTLER (read about him here) WOULDN'T IT BE NICE TO SEE HIM TAKE KOVY'S PLACE ON THE RIGHT SIDE SO KOVY CAN REST FOR THE PLAYOFFS?****

That is the big question in Ottawa right now. And since you provided such excellent feedback the last time we created a debate, I thought we'd try and bring you all out of hiding again.

Alex Kovalev; 6'1 215lbs and 37 years old from Togliatti Russia. He signed a 2 year 10 million dollar contract on July 6th 2009.

And to be honest, we knew what we were getting. While the Montreal fans called him L'Artiste for having some of the most spectacular hands in the game, the buzz word that came with the Kovy signing wasn't "skill" or "dangles".

It was "enigma"

For those of you not familiar with the word it means "to describe something or someone as an enigma, you mean they are mysterious or difficult to understand". The reason this was used by analysts, columnists and bloggers alike was because some nights Kovy can be the best player on the ice, and some nights he can be invisible. There is no rhyme or reason for it.

Or is there? Let's have a closer look at the first season of AK27 in a Sens uniform.

In 72 games this year Alex has 47 points (17 goals, 30 assists), good for third on the team. However lets look at how these stats break down.

October		12	4	1	5	-5	10	0	1	0	0	0	17	.235
November		9	0	6	6	3	2	0	2	0	0	0	14	.000
December		17	3	8	11	6	12	1	1	0	0	1	38	.079
January		15	7	10	17	2	18	0	4	0	0	2	47	.149
February		7	3	5	8	1	4	2	2	0	0	1	18	.167
March		12	0	0	0	-10	8	0	0	0	0	0	21	.000

Courtesy of Yahoo Sports

Now, looking at these stats, let us look at it in portions. The first twelve games of the season, the Sens went 6-3-3 (fancy way of saying 6-6), and they amassed 37 goals, about 3 per game. Of these, stats-wise Kovy contributed to 14%. This can maybe be written off perhaps as a new player learning a new system.

After putting up semi-respectable numbers in November and December, on the 3rd of January, in a wild 7-4 win against the Flyers in which he scored 4 goals and 1 assist", Kovy dropped this line on the fans

"I had an injury. I couldn't even shoot right. I tried to pass, in general. But lately I have started feeling more or less better." Puck Daddy

That was the beginning of January. From that point to the end of the Olympic break, Alex put up 25 points in 22 games. Better than a point a game over the same stretch that his linemate Mike Fisher put up only 5 goals! Keep in mind most of this is done on the second line! Not bad for a 37 year old.

Add this in to the fact that Kovalev sat out the game on Friday in Buffalo, and a strong case begins to be made that Alex Kovalev is hurt, and has been playing hurt for most of the post-olympic break.

He is not a young man anymore. An injury at his age would make (and evidently in the early part of the year DID make) a huge difference. This doesn't mean he is without fault. He should be sitting out and resting for the playoffs if he is hurt.

One thing that Sens fans, especially those calling for him to be sent to the minors (seriously?), don't seem to realize is this last bit of information:

In wins		38	16	21	37	25	22	3	8	0	0	4	93	.172
In losses		34	1	9	10	-28	32	0	2	0	0	0	62	.016

Winning		N/A	5	4	9	N/A	16	1	2	0	0	1	N/A	N/A
Losing		N/A	4	12	16	N/A	24	1	3	0	0	0	N/A	N/A
Tied		N/A	8	14	22	N/A	14	1	5	0	0	3	N/A	N/A
Clutch		N/A	3	2	5	N/A	4	1	0	0	0	1	N/A	N/A
Blowouts		N/A	1	1	2	N/A	0	0	1	0	0	0	N/A	N/A
Last 5 Min		N/A	4	7	11	N/A	18	2	2	0	0	1	N/A	N/A

What this says to me is that we NEED Kovalev. When he is on (37 points) we win. When he isn't (10 points) we lose. And when those games in the postseason are tight, 81% of his points have come when we are losing or tied.

I'm not trying to make an excuses for Alex

I'm just trying to explain The Enigma.

What do you guys think?

Game Day Preview: Ottawa at Montreal

Hello everyone, sorry for the lack of recaps it has been pretty tough to write about a team that keeps losing. Stop by after the game tonight win or lose, and we will talk about what is going on with the team. Now for tonight, I hate to say that tonights game is a must win...but it really feels that way.

We are a little pressed for time this afternoon so we are just going to do our predictions and the players to watch features.

Players to Watch - Ottawa

Jason Spezza - Absolutely unreal game against the Stars if he puts in half the performance he did on saturday I am sure there will be some very happy Sens fans.

Alex Kovalev - If he is going to break out of his slump this will be the game for him to do it. Alex always seems to excel against his former teams and this is a time he really needs to step up.

Mike Fisher - I have a feeling this will be a close game and with a team leading 6 game winning goals Mike Fisher will factor in on the outcome.

Zack Smith - He should come out flying! I was very impressed with his game(two periods) against the leafs. Lets hope he can score another one of these.

Players to Watch - Montreal

Thomas Plekanec - With 6 points against Ottawa this year the Ottawa defence must be aware when he is on the ice.

Halak - Posting a 6 - 0 - 1 record in his last seven starts is definitely something to take note of. Ottawa must get lots of shots on him early and not let him take over the game.

Predictions

Oakes

3-2 Ottawa - For the Sens to break out of this slump they are going to have to win a tough character building game. Look for Smith to give the guys a boost being a new face in the line up. This is a huge game! The division might be out of reach, but fifth place certainly isn't. Go Sens Go.

Young

2-1 Ottawa. I still don't think that Ottawa's struggles offensively will be solved in a couple games, and I think, for the psyche of the team, they need to win a hard fought, close game. That will come in handy in about 10 games. I too think Smith will (hopefully) impact this game in a positive way.